Thursday, May 1, 2014

Not Ukraine's Prerogative

The government in Kiev has conceded that the Eastern Ukraine is out of their control. At this point, Russia has not consolidated power either, as there are many ethnic Ukrainians who do not want to live either under Russian rule or in a state that pretends independence but is only a Russian satellite. The situation is now chaos. A mayor who had supported the old pro-Russian regime but then shifted loyalty back to Kiev was shot in the back and seriously wounded. People have been beaten with baseball bats and iron bars on the street. The region closest to Russia has fallen into anarchy as even police sworn to defend the Ukraine have decided they will not survive if they resist the Russians and have abandoned their posts or even switched sides. Without military assistance from Western Europe and the US, there is simply no way that the Ukraine can win a war of self-defense against Russia. All Ukrainians could do is make it costly and bloody for Russia to prevail (which undoubtedly would mean Ukraine would suffer more than if they just capitulate), but alone, there is no way the Ukrainians can win.

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