Monday, April 21, 2014
The Next Move
The Ukraine does not have sufficient military resources to prevent Russia from asserting her will in the Eastern Ukraine. The residents of the area in question are about equally divided between ethnic Russians, who were brought there during Soviet times and native Ukrainians whose ancestors were there for centuries. Several ethnic Russians were killed in a firefight that broke an Easter truce. The Russians assert that Ukrainian nationalists were behind the checkpoint attack. The Ukrainians contend that Russia may have staged the attack as a pretext for further aggression. Which side is right makes less of a difference ultimately than which side can muster the most armed force, and in this case, Russia could take all of the Ukraine in a matter of a few short weeks and suppress most resistance within months if Vladimir Putin sees that to be in Russia's national interest and orders an attack.