Stability in Crimea

Russia does not want violence in Crimea. It does not serve Putin's interest to spark a shooting conflict with the Ukraine. So long as ethnic Russians and Russian assets are secure in the Ukraine, the ever rational but calculating Vladimir Putin will have no reason to employ greater force, but the course of future action is not entirely in Putin's or Russia's hands. Hotheads, more likely to be on the Ukrainian side (including nationalists reputed to be neo-Nazis), could provoke bloodshed. In history, war has sometimes been started because of miscalculation or events involving minor actors or actions that spiral out of control. Remember that Jenkins' Ear cost thousands of lives and that Russia has undeniable strategic interests and historic claims in the Ukraine.