Tuesday, October 22, 2013
The Syria Negotiations
I see no path to peace in Syria despite the new push beginning in Geneva. Assad is rational but unrestrained in committing violence to protect his regime. His opponents are now largely Wahhabists who are al-Qaeda members themselves or share al-Qaeda's absolutist and nihilistic beliefs. These religious fanatics have crowded out most secular opposition to Assad and now both Assad forces (including Iranian Shia proxy Hezbollah) and the Sunni Islamists are targeting the moderates with whom peace might be reached. Who knows how much blood will be spilled and where the fighting will spread (likely into Lebanon, but possibly even spilling over into Turkey, and certainly not calming the sectarian rift in Iraq)?
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