Pakistan Versus India

The border region of Kashmir is heating up once again between the sub-continent's two nuclear powers. India is already in a state of agitation after the Mumbai massacre and the little match of some cross-border exchanges of fire might be enough to ignite the torch of war-perhaps even a nuclear exchange. Not surprisingly the unserious novice in the Oval Office has hardly uttered a word about the Kashmir conflict or the Mumbai outrage; perhaps, Obama thinks nothing of consequence ever happened on earth until his ascension.

Miscalculations Cause Disasters

Saddam Hussein would never have postured a non-existent WMD program had he foreseen the cost. He was a vicious dictator no doubt and a Muslim, but he was no Islamist fanatic. He was interested in perpetuating his own power and self-preservation and thought Bush was bluster and bluff. The Hamas terrorists currently under devastating assault knew that they would not destabilize Israel with their nuisance rocket attacks; they would occasionally kill a Jew or a few, but they would not overturn the Jewish state by way of the Kassam. They did not conceive that the IDF would marshal sufficient force to cause many of their deaths over a rocket barrage. The Pakistanis do not believe minor troop movements will precipitate a great conflict. Miscalculations engender great conflagrations.

Pakistan Versus India

Just as the schedule of mobilization ignited the engine of inevitability of World War I, so too could Pakistan's disposition of around a single division toward the Indian border. With India already rightly inflamed by the Mumbai massacre, it will not take much to send these two nuclear armed neighbors into the spiral toward war. Pakistani strategic planners will know their best hope to defeat India in a conventional war will be the Guderian tactic of Blitzkrieg where a quick strike might even elicit terms that would unite Indian Kashmir with her Pakistani Muslim brothers. Even the most optimistic generals in Pakistan recognize the futility of a nuclear exchange, but a quick devastating thrust might call forth ceasefire negotiations before Pakistan sustains irrevocable damage. A truce might even be developed under United Nations' auspices that would summon international peacekeepers to allow Pakistan to consolidate her gain. Let us pray Pakistani military minds are not thinking that way because something that seems perfectly plausible at a war college could be the start of World War III.

The Survival Instinct

The BBC showed a massive crowd in Mumbai chanting "death to Pakistan". With these rival nations as the sub-continent's nuclear powers, many observers are alarmed by these bellicose Indian demonstrations. Other observers were gladdened that somewhere the people were not so weakened as to abandon the primordial calling to endure, to cling to the killer instinct that has allowed man to survive against the ravages of nature and of other predators even against the predation of one's fellow man. When the hunter becomes the hunted, he must have the will to use all the tools in his arsenal, all the arrows in the quiver despite what UN General Assembly resolutions might say or war crimes proceedings in the Hague. No comparable fervor to the righteous rage of Mumbai existed in the US after 9/11. I saw no gathered masses shouting "death to Afghanistan", "death to the terrorists", or even "death to the Taliban" after the bloodletting. We are so restrained in the USA that we take al Qaeda murderers to a tropical island and fete them with new prayer rugs and Korans and ethnically appropriate food while they cut their captives' heads off with rusty knives. Why, we are so civilized that we are working out trial procedures for Osama bin Laden for the eventuality of his capture. It seems resistance to our own annihilation has been bred out of many Americans. Thankfully, there are still fighters in the ranks who have what it takes. Certainly not all of the warriors are in uniform. Would anyone be surprised to see an automotive worker someday flatten Brian Ross whose catty report about private jets broke the momentum for the Big Three bailout? Most UAW members still have the backbone to defend their livelihoods and the continued prosperity of their families. A nation and her people need hard men to keep them safe -even if the hard man is an inarticulate bumbler climbing on a fire engine or wearing a skirt as in the Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher.

Foggy Bottom Blues

Obama's national security team marched out to much acclaim. Were we in a rational and aware world, Obama and his minions would provoke national insecurity. Jewish Zionists and their gentile supporters should feel the most disquiet. Her Hillaryness literally embraced and kissed Suha Arafat after she said Jews were gassing the Palestinians in a genocide attempt. The future Secretary of State never separated herself from her husband's pushing Israel to give the Palestinians 90% plus of the disputed territory including parts of Jerusalem when then Prime Minister Ehud Barak met Arafat. Incoming National Security Advisor General James Jones seemed to advocate almost exclusively for the Palestinians when he served as President Bush's Middle East envoy. The new administration will offer much carrot to the Arabs and very little stick. I fear Israel will be served up on a plate with the debate being only on how much of the baby to divide. Israel's leadership must stand up to whatever Obama throws at it, from the graduated loss of material military support, US funding, even if this extends to American Jews being denied Aliyah, the loss of American tourist entry, and the revocation of fund transfer to Israel. Even if faced with apartheid-type sanctions and international pariah status, Israel must retain her character as a Jewish state with Jerusalem as her undivided capital and continued Jewish habitation in Hebron along with facilitated access by Jews to their holy sites. On the current diplomatic front, Codeleezza Rice is being sent urgently to restrain India. I am sure the Indians will recognize the nuance that although the ISI founded the Laskar-e-Toiba, the Pakistani government did not immediately dispatch this group of Mumbai murderers. And the Indians will welcome this State Department subtlety that while Pakistanis want to harry India over Kashmir, they would never endorse wanton butchery like this weekend's bloodbath. And if India buys this premise and holds back, it will not throw fuel on the fire of terrorism from restive Muslims, Maoist separatists who now have an even higher bar to shoot for, and even Sikhs who recall the draconian measures India took against the Golden Temple at Amristar plotters and who will certainly be fully placated if Muslims are absolved just because one of their own sits as Prime Minister. Yes, sending the failed former National Security Advisor Rice as an emissary should work splendidly just as her effort to divine and deter 9/11 succeeded, her brilliant leadership swept in swift victory in Iraq, her knowledge of Russia where she holds her PHD foresaw and forestalled the malevolent force of Putinism right down to the aggression against Georgia. Oh, mighty India, the world's largest democracy and a rising economic power must embrace Rice's Christian platitudes about turning the other cheek. Oh, wait, Condi the powers in India don't understand that template. Shiva does not turn nor should India turn the other cheek.

The ISI Delivers

Pakistan has been implicated in past terror attacks on India. In the Mumbai Massacre, even if Pakistan as a nation did not direct the rampage, at the least rogue elements or former members of the ISI had to have had foreknowledge of the assault, acquaintance with the perpetrators or their backers, or a deeper involvement to the level of prior intelligence gathering and material support. Pakistan must select her side in the war on terror. To prove they are on the side of the West and civilization, they must open their books, as it were. Withdraw any agents abroad whose security would be compromised, investigate the activities of their operatives, and account for their spending. If any are found to have been involved, but national pride is deemed at stake, Pakistan can try and punish the guilty themselves. I have no doubt the leader of Pakistan whose own wife Benazir Bhutto was murdered by these same forces did not orchestrate or in any way condone the Mumbai terror. But the ISI has long been an international troublemaker. Their involvement in nuclear proliferation with the A. Q. Khan network providing the technical expertise to arm North Korea is well-documented. The Khan network also assisted Iran in her effort to acquire atomic capabilities.If she does not come clean, Pakistan will face the righteous wrath of an aroused India with support from Great Britain and the US. Pakistan must cast off the corrupt or fanatic elements she harbors now or face crushing defeat later.